Hmm...are you still on that DeSantis train?

The DeSantis Train Left: Are You Still On It?

In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics, candidates rise and fall with shocking speed. One such case has been Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose campaign for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 appeared poised for success, only to find itself increasingly marginalized in recent months. What some have dubbed the "DeSantis Train Left" captures the narrative of a campaign that started with high expectations but is now grappling with a changing political environment, strategic missteps, and an inability to gain traction with key voter segments.

The Rise of Ron DeSantis

In 2022, DeSantis seemed to have everything going for him. After winning a resounding re-election as governor of Florida by nearly 20 points, he became the GOP’s next big hope. Positioned as a strong conservative leader who could stand up to COVID-19 mandates, push back against left-wing “wokeness,” and enact tough immigration policies, DeSantis was seen as a serious challenger to the eventual Republican frontrunner, Donald Trump. He seemed to embody the new wave of Trump-style conservatism, but with a more disciplined, policy-oriented approach.

By mid-2023, many political observers were confident that DeSantis would emerge as the de facto leader of the Republican establishment, poised to break with Trump’s more erratic style while maintaining the appeal of his populist base. With his young, dynamic persona, DeSantis appeared to be the future of the party.

But as the 2024 campaign unfolded, the DeSantis train began to show signs of derailment.

The "DeSantis Train Left" Explained

The term "DeSantis Train Left" refers to the shift in momentum as DeSantis’s campaign, once considered the inevitable challenger to Trump, lost steam and began to stagnate. The phrase itself is a play on the expression "train left," often used to describe a missed opportunity or a vehicle that leaves without someone aboard. In this case, it reflects how DeSantis, once seen as the future of the GOP, has struggled to catch up to Trump and, more importantly, to fully connect with voters.

Several factors have contributed to the DeSantis campaign's faltering trajectory:

1. Trump's Enduring Popularity

Despite facing a series of legal challenges and ongoing scandals, Donald Trump has maintained his dominant position in the Republican race. His base of support remains remarkably loyal, buoyed by a deep-seated sense of grievance and the perception that he represents the last, best hope to "drain the swamp." As DeSantis struggled to differentiate himself from Trump, his campaign was left competing for the same conservative voter base—many of whom see Trump not just as a political leader but as a symbol of their fight against the establishment.

DeSantis’s attempts to carve out a niche as a more pragmatic, policy-driven alternative to Trump have largely failed to generate enthusiasm among voters. Instead of positioning himself as a "better" version of Trump, he has often seemed to come across as a pale imitation, lacking the charisma and fiery rhetoric that Trump excels in.

2. Strategic Missteps

DeSantis's campaign has been criticized for lacking a coherent strategy. Early on, he was branded as a "governor of Florida," leaning heavily on his success in handling COVID-19 and pushing forward a conservative agenda in the state. However, these policy wins did not always translate into national appeal. While many of DeSantis’s moves—like banning critical race theory in schools and restricting abortion access—won over the GOP’s conservative base, they didn’t build the broad coalition necessary to win a national election.

A major misstep was DeSantis’s decision to engage in culture wars that appeared to alienate centrist voters and some moderates. His combative stance on education, LGBTQ+ issues, and even Disney (a long-time corporate ally in Florida) felt like a relentless focus on issues that, while energizing the base, failed to attract swing voters in key battleground states. At the same time, DeSantis struggled to establish a relatable, personal connection with voters, often coming off as robotic or overly rehearsed in interviews and town halls.

3. Lack of Fundraising and Media Appeal

Fundraising is another critical issue for the DeSantis campaign. Despite initial enthusiasm from donors, DeSantis has been outpaced by Trump and other candidates in terms of campaign contributions. Trump, with his name recognition and media magnetism, has dominated the airwaves and earned the loyalty of big-money donors. Meanwhile, DeSantis has found it difficult to build a broad fundraising network, and his super PAC has struggled to match the financial firepower of Trump’s operation.

Moreover, DeSantis has failed to generate the media buzz needed to stay relevant. Trump, with his bombastic rhetoric and ability to dominate headlines, remains the primary focus of media coverage, leaving DeSantis to compete in a landscape where his message gets lost in the noise. His campaign's inability to break through in a crowded field of Republican contenders has led to a sense of stagnation, further dampening his momentum.

4. Challenges in Connecting with Voters

A crucial part of DeSantis’s struggle is his difficulty in connecting with the broader Republican electorate, particularly the working-class voters who are key to Trump’s coalition. While DeSantis has been effective at energizing the conservative elite, his appeal to everyday voters has been less clear.

Many in the GOP base see DeSantis as a policy wonk—a brilliant tactician who lacks the emotional resonance and anti-establishment appeal of Trump. This disconnect has made it difficult for DeSantis to overcome Trump’s dominance in the polls. Voters may appreciate DeSantis’s record as a governor, but they’re drawn to Trump’s charisma, his outsider persona, and his relentless fight against the establishment. DeSantis, meanwhile, has struggled to present himself as the authentic "outsider" that Republicans have rallied around in recent years.

5. Shifting Voter Preferences

Lastly, the evolving political climate and the changing preferences of GOP voters have left DeSantis with fewer avenues to distinguish himself. While DeSantis’s tough-on-crime, anti-immigrant, and anti-woke policies have endeared him to many conservatives, the broader GOP base has increasingly rallied around the idea of a strong, combative leader who isn't afraid to challenge the status quo. DeSantis’s more traditional, establishment-oriented approach to governance has put him at odds with the populist and often chaotic forces that have come to dominate the Republican Party.

As Trump’s lead continues to grow and other candidates like Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy begin to carve out their niches, DeSantis finds himself caught between a shifting political landscape and a rigid, old-school campaign strategy. His train, once thought to be the future of the party, has left the station without him on board. Are you still on it?

Conclusion

The DeSantis Train Left is a cautionary tale about the unpredictability of modern political campaigns. What seemed like a sure-fire path to the GOP nomination has turned into a struggle for relevance as Ron DeSantis faces mounting challenges from both within his own party and outside it. Whether he can reclaim his position as the GOP’s standard-bearer or whether he will fade into the background remains to be seen. The DeSantis train has, indeed, left the station—exactly as we predicted.